The local ICT sector is set to be disrupted by a volatile telco market and the maturing of technologies currently in early-adoption stage, says IDC New Zealand.
The analyst firm believe these trends, along with a depressed economy and high exchange rate will force the sector to focus on cost cutting, maintaining margings and redefining business strategies.
"Change is incredibly rapid and multi-dimensional," says country manager Ullrich Loeffler. "Social network and consumer passion for mobile devices is transforming business priorities; fierce competitors are being forced into unlikely alliances to manage demand; the very nature of market leadership is being rewritten - and overlaying this is the fundamental rewriting of government policy and procurement in key areas."
IDC forecasts "steady but unspectacular" ICT growth, with total revenues rising 3.2 percent to $12.19 billion. It says the hardware sector is the strongest performer with revenues rising 10 percent to $2.575 billion, followed by software - up 9 percent to $1.057 billion and IT Services - up 3.6 percent to $2.950 billion.
It predicts telecommunications will shrink by 0.8 percent to $5.6 billion with declining voice revenue counteracting growth in mobile and broadband.
According to IDC, all ICT markets here will be affected by the unpredictability in the telco sphere, hallmarked by the operational separation of Telecom, broadband investment, the regulation of mobile termination rates and reviews of backhaul services.
IDC's Top Trends Predictions for 2011
1. Chief information officer (CIO) gets strategic: Priorities will be driving the business value of technology, managing disruption and reforming IT governance.
2. Everything goes mobile: The Mobile computing explosion will redefine devices, consumer behaviour, workplace practices and create a new applications battlefront.
3. Behind enemy lines: Consumer passion for disruptive devices and applications in the workplace will force IT departments to adapt and optimise.
4. The cloud fog dissipates: Cloud computing gains traction, but the approach will be 'best fit for purpose' with the focus on migrating, integrating, securing and consistently delivering services.
5. Strange bedfellows: Disruption will force ICT players into new partnerships and roles for growth, forcing them to reshape, recreate and reconcile business models.
6. The ultra-fast broadband debate: The myopic debate over who builds the national fibre network will shift to risks of industry restructuring, regulation and how to make it work.
7. The social enterprise: Social networking will mature - and innovative companies will use it to create a new social business model that empowers staff and transforms business approaches.
8. Government trims down to gear up: The new government public procurement programme drives shared services, providing better frontline services with less duplication.
9. Connected health services come of age: Broadband initiatives, successful telemedicine trials, rapid mobile technology adoption and consumer acceptance means e-health adoption reach a tipping point.
10. Rugby World Cup 2011: It's “scrum-time” not “try-time” for ICT - the event showcases New Zealand innovation and stimulates revenues - but pre-match preparation and execution will be critical.