IDC launched its predictions for 2010 last week, featuring consolidated buying in government and a restructure of the ultra-fast broadband plan that, in part, appears to support statements made last week by controversial analyst Paul Budde. IDC Top 10 predictions are
1. Planning for an uncertain economic reality
"In a nutshell, if we believe current economic commentary, we can expect a brightening outlook for 2010 although volatility remains a risk and fear factor, as recently proven by the debt crisis in the Middle East."
2. Consolidated buying — the government savings plan
"IDC believes that the New Zealand government is a stone’s throw away from consolidating its procurement of IT equipment and services as pressure to reduce the government deficit and to boost government operational transparency builds."
3. Deconstruction and reconstruction of ICT industry for growth
"We expect a continuation of the 2009 alliances established between ICT players, such as that between Datacraft/Cisco, HP/Microsoft, FX/Datacraft. The natural affinities will reach a new level in 2010, extending to unconventional allies from different sectors."
4. Use of ICT will become critical to CO2 reduction strategies
"The target for greenhouse gas reductions have been set: now the rhetoric will shift to the reality of just how those targets can be achieved, with ICT and agri-business solutions in the spotlight."
5. The government's ultra-fast broadband initiative will need to be restructured
"IDC believes the UFB plan will need to be restructured, either overtly or covertly, over the next 18 months. This is not a challenge to the Government's objectives for a national fibre network, nor its objectives for open access dark fibre, but rather the complex and fragmented implementation plan that has been devised, which we believe is seriously flawed in its current form."
6. Fibre for schools policy puts use of ICT in education under spotlight
"Over the next 18 months it will widen to consider how the significant cultural, training and school funding barriers can be overcome to ensure fibre becomes a powerful education enabler rather than an under-utilised pipe."
7. Technologies facilitating customer care and retention strategies will receive VIP treatment
"IDC believes that 2010 the drive for retention and customer care will see significant areas of opportunity for vendors with respect to smarter bundling enabled by advanced analytics, the use of cloud technologies to get closer to the customer, and Service-oriented Architecture (SOA)."
8. Mobility enter a new growth curve
"On the demand side, we are seeing a culture shift to 'always-on' connectivity. In the consumer space, this is being driven by social networking and user generated content — particularly from the likes of Youtube, Facebook, and TradeMe. Business use is driven by the need to increase business mobility and productivity."
9. Cloud — trophy wins but baby steps
"With attractive benefits but very real challenges IDC expects 2010, to be a year when customer's start to take a hybrid approach to cloud, requiring vendors to be conscious of positioning themselves as having capabilities in the cloud arena while also catering to the needs of internal IT infrastructure transformation."
10. Increasing number of 'managed business outcomes' contracts
"With increased business-alignment in IT spending and CFOs involvement in measuring ROI of IT services, IDC expects that risk-reward contract terms to become more business outcome-oriented."
Read more at Computerworld.